Amazon, on the other hand, did not deliver the 30 day algorithm bump that many successful indie authors swear by. According to my numbers, the A9 algorithm pushed CFXS for only one day.
That was despite a clear demand for the book, as IGG showed. The newsletter swaps did indeed train the algorithm correctly, filling my also-boughts with genre-appropriate titles. I even ran three AMS ads. But despite CFXS getting rave reviews, Amazon's algorithm didn't grab the book and run with it.
We can only speculate as to why, but I suspect that Amazon has made changes to nerf the algo gaming strategy. They're constantly tweaking their algorithm, and they've previously blunted formerly successful strategies like free giveaways. Nick Cole has even reported diminished results from newsletter trades.Brian's got a keen mind and is already thinking about the next development in the bookselling business, beyond the Amazon Age. But what is the Amazon Age? For that, let's look at the original tweets:
Science fiction history makes more sense if you follow editors instead of the writers. As such, I think we're in the middle of another editorial handover as "indie" has become the larger market. So the real questions are: /1
- What will the Amazon Age look like? Mil-SF as a fad has run its course, harem is starting to decline, and litRPG is still feeling its way.
- What and who will lead the post-Amazon Age, when, in ten years, the inevitable handoff happens again.
- Every handover has been accompanied by a run on the classics of the past by people who dislike the current fashions. The decade of the Nielsen-Haydens and "woke Tor" fed the various Campbell and pulp revivals. To what will the malcontents of the Amazon Age turn?
- The more science fiction histories I read, the more it becomes clear that editorial taste, not reader preferences, decides the artistic course of science fiction. The power of the purse can be used to entice more of what an editor wants, as was seen outside of science fiction with William Dean Howells' championing of literary realism and Babette Rosemund's transformation of the hero pulps.
- Through reading JD Cowan's recent commentaries on Sam Lundwall's history of science fiction, and the eternal favorite of this blog, Barry Malzberg's Breakfast in the Ruins, it became clear that editorial handovers happened more frequently than before. Lundwall, C. S. Lewis, and Malzberg all cheered the changes in science fiction that accompanied the rise of Galaxy and Fantasy & Science Fiction, each for different reasons. And Malzberg also pointed out that, with each new handover, a sizeable part of the audience chooses to return to the classics of the genre instead of reading the current trends in science fiction.
- A model quickly appeared, showing that the peak influence of each leading editor lasted roughly ten years. While there are some gaps in the model that I'm researching to fill, it does appear, as of this level of understanding, to match the beginning and the current history of the genre--including the past ten years of controversy. But while the procession of Gernsback to Campbell to Gold is clear, it is the most recent handovers which are of interest.
- Tom Doherty of Tor and Jim Baen have been notable editors in the field since the 1970s. But in the years immediately before Baen's 2006 death, there was a passing of the baton to Patrik Nielsen-Hayden, also of Tor, accompanied by a rise in activist science fiction--and a host of back-to-the-basics movements from Left, Right, and Center. These movements, from PulpRev, Human Wave, Hieroglyphic, and individual attempts to breathe back wonder into the genre, looked to the Golden Age of Science Fiction of Campbell and Gold and even earlier. And, anecdotally, the backlist from authors of the 1970s and earlier outsold the contemporary authors of the 2010s. Even today, backlists are outselling new releases--in the brick and mortar bookstores.
- In Amazon's independent ebook store, new releases are flying off the digital shelf. And, in 2017, the virtual bookstore seized the title of most important editor in the genre from Nielsen-Hayden, as it sold 1.5X more independent science fiction books than all of tradpub combined. Combined with the emergence of indie writers in the literary awards and the continued maturity of skill and product, Amazon has taken the lead of the industry, even if tradpub refuses to acknowledge it. Already, three runaway trends have bloomed--milSF, litRPG, and harem--with pulp and mecha on the rise.
- But no one stays on top forever, and in ten years, someone else will take the reigns. And what science fiction will look like is still anyone's guess.
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